Overconfidence in Online Poker: Variance or Skill

An overconfident player is a losing player. Too often new players make a first deposit on a poker site only to  “double up”  within weeks of their account creation. This was the case for a friend and co-worker of mine. After years of live play at a local riverboat casino my friend became interested in online poker. He read my article discussing online vs live poker play and decided that playing poker on the internet was for him. Unfortunately, he is quickly finding out how harsh and competitive the online poker world has become.

After just one week of playing online poker at Full Tilt,  Mr. Overconfidence had turned a meager 75$ deposit into over $280.00.  You could see the dollar signs lighting up in his eyes. Not too long after this short run of success talk of “poker for a living” ensued. Hearing such words reminded me of my own poker beginnings – winning my first tournament and believing I would never work again. Unfortunately, swings and variance are part of the game and short term results are meaningless.

Variance or Skill

One of the worst mistakes you can make as a new online poker player is being overconfident. Thinking you can quit your full time job and play poker for a living within weeks of starting is a horrible thought process. Even worse is thinking that you can move up to higher stakes immediately to win even more money. Beginners and veteran players alike make this same fatal mistake. With that being said here is a tournament graph showing you just what I am talking about.

Although poker is a game defined by odds and correct decision making, game selection can become counter-intuitive. If you are winning at the $5.00 sit-n-go games you should be able to win even more at $20.00 sng’s. The truth is, moving up in stakes has more to do with the size of your bankroll and less to do with your talent. Because poker inherently has variance and swings, even the best players in the world can bust if they overextend themselves.

Looking at the chart above we can see how at game #44 increased stakes and a downswing depleted this players bankroll. This player clearly violated the 5 percent sit-n-go bankroll rule. A player with $190.00 in their account should not be taking on games higher than $10.00 each. As a downswing occurs and that bankroll moves below $100.00 a maximum of $5.00 per sng should be committed.

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