Overconfidence in Online Poker: Variance or Skill

An overconfident player is a losing player. Too often new players make a first deposit on a poker site only to  “double up”  within weeks of their account creation. This was the case for a friend and co-worker of mine. After years of live play at a local riverboat casino my friend became interested in online poker. He read my article discussing online vs live poker play and decided that playing poker on the internet was for him. Unfortunately, he is quickly finding out how harsh and competitive the online poker world has become.

After just one week of playing online poker at Full Tilt,  Mr. Overconfidence had turned a meager 75$ deposit into over $280.00.  You could see the dollar signs lighting up in his eyes. Not too long after this short run of success talk of “poker for a living” ensued. Hearing such words reminded me of my own poker beginnings – winning my first tournament and believing I would never work again. Unfortunately, swings and variance are part of the game and short term results are meaningless.

Variance or Skill

One of the worst mistakes you can make as a new online poker player is being overconfident. Thinking you can quit your full time job and play poker for a living within weeks of starting is a horrible thought process. Even worse is thinking that you can move up to higher stakes immediately to win even more money. Beginners and veteran players alike make this same fatal mistake. With that being said here is a tournament graph showing you just what I am talking about.

Although poker is a game defined by odds and correct decision making, game selection can become counter-intuitive. If you are winning at the $5.00 sit-n-go games you should be able to win even more at $20.00 sng’s. The truth is, moving up in stakes has more to do with the size of your bankroll and less to do with your talent. Because poker inherently has variance and swings, even the best players in the world can bust if they overextend themselves.

Looking at the chart above we can see how at game #44 increased stakes and a downswing depleted this players bankroll. This player clearly violated the 5 percent sit-n-go bankroll rule. A player with $190.00 in their account should not be taking on games higher than $10.00 each. As a downswing occurs and that bankroll moves below $100.00 a maximum of $5.00 per sng should be committed.

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Interview with “Titan” Tom Braband (TitanTom32)

The “dip” describes the point in time when winners learn to quit or stick it out. According to author Seth Godin of “The Dip”, what really sets superstars apart from everyone else is the ability to escape dead ends quickly, while staying focused and motivated when it really counts. This situation occurs frequently for beginning poker players and  couldn’t be any more true than for online tournament poker star “Titan” Tom Braband. Going from a beginner to online professional in just five years, Tom has amassed dazzling career earnings early in his poker career. However, things weren’t at all perfect in the beginning. Like most players “Titan” Tom struggled at the start of his poker career.

I struggled early with cash games, as I didn’t have the experience to play well in deep stacked situations. When I found tournaments, I was able to compete on a more even playing field and learned to adapt to situations much quicker.  I also began networking with other players, reading as many books as I could find and using the poker training sites.

Tom has gone from a losing player to ranking in the top 100 players online in four years time. He has also amassed career earnings in the six-figure range, nearing one million dollars. We sat down with “Titan” Tom to get his thoughts on poker.

Name and describe the lowest and highest points in your poker career thus far.

My high point was probably winning super Tuesday this past April and the recognition that came with it. I’ve had downswings that have really hurt my confidence before a few times. I’m currently 0 for 5 in the WSOP and haven’t posted an ante, so I’m really in a low point right now as far as confidence.

What would you say are the biggest mistakes of beginning MTT players?

Playing too many hands out of position, getting into a hand without a plan, calling with draws without proper odds and not being aggressive enough.

Name your favorite poker book and favorite poker training service? Elaborate as to why you like it and how it has helped you win poker tournaments.

My favorite poker book is NL Theory and Practice by Sklanksy. It really helped me elaborate how I think through hands and helped me have more of a plan and an idea of what to do on each street. I currently am employed by PokerPwnage.com so that’s my favorite website.

What are your thoughts on the grind and variance associated with online poker? How have each affected you in poker and in everyday life?

I don’t mind the grind too much because I really enjoy poker a lot, it can be very wearing when you aren’t winning money though. Variance can be really brutal, I prefer to try to fight through it most of the time and keep playing rather than take time off, but sometimes time off is necessary.

Other than family, what person or poker player has had the greatest positive effect on your poker career? (online pros etc)

I’d like to think that basebaldy has had a great effect on me. He has helped not only with playing on a daily basis but also with networking to other very good players and how to live life and enjoy it without letting poker become consuming.

List and discuss the strongest and weakest parts of your overall poker game (not necessarily MTT play)

I play really well in short handed deep stacked games. I can really put a lot of pressure on my opponents when short handed dictates that your reads on each individual player are stronger. My weakest part is probably getting in a pattern of playing too many hands at times and letting a bit of tilt keep me from being patient at the tables.

What is your overall tournament playing style and how can it help and hurt you?

I normally play somewhat tight until deeper stages of tournaments. Sometimes that doesn’t allow me to get chips early on when I’m not running well. It helps me not leak off chips and remain in the tournament longer.

Do you believe in long term goal setting or just playing each hand to the best of your ability at that given moment? Why do you feel that way?

I think vague goals are fine, but it’s really hard to come out on a given day and say you are going to win something because of the variance in poker. Short term goals such as playing tight today, or going with my reads, or playing great poker are good goals to have.

You have been to several WSOP tournament events. Name a few differences between live and online poker tournaments?

The play is a little bit different. You have less experienced tournament players when it comes to stack sizes and flop play. Players are a bit more passive which allows you to pick up more pots uncontested and accumulate chips on a steadier pace.

Who do you feel are the best tournament players currently and in history. (can be online or live)

isaac baron, elky, doc sands, sctrojans, gboro, moorman1, basebaldy

How do you balance playing poker with family, friends and significant others?

I try to give them as much time as I can when I’m not playing poker and make sure that they know when I do play, that I need to focus.

How has poker changed in the time you have played? How have you adapted to changing playing environment?

Play has gotten much more aggressive. I have tightened up and been able to play back at people using a tight image when I know they have a weak holding.

What are your thoughts on life after poker – or will you be a lifetime player like Doyle Brunson?

I want to invest in as many things as I can so that I can have my money work for me. I’m not sure what I want to do after poker, but I’m sure when the opportunity presents itself I’ll be ready

Any other advice/information you would like to share? (poker, tournaments, tips for beginners etc)

I think that playing a lot, you can really beat your head against a wall. Beginning players really need to talk to other players about hands, watch videos and read books to improve their games. Experiment with new strategies all the time because the ones currently out there are only going to be front line for so long.

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Invasion of the Poker Bots

One of the only major downfalls of online poker is the inability to look your opponent in the eye. This creates a playing environment where “tells” are virtually non existent. It also creates an situation where you never really know who you are playing against – or even if they are human. Poker bots have many online players worried about the integrity of online poker. In the age of sophisticated technology could bots be raking in the cash playing online poker? For many experienced poker players the answer is yes. Potential proof has recently been brought to the forefront by poker players all over the internet.

Many say bots are used widespread across poker rooms to flush out beginning or even average players. A concensus is building that poker bots do in fact exist. The next questions to be answered is, how good are they currently and how good can they become? Bots pose a serious threat to internet poker since advanced level bots will wash out weaker players – eliminating the profits of people who play poker for a their livlihood.

Do Poker Bots Pose a Threat?

Some people claim poker bots aren’t yet intelligent enough to pose any significant threat to the poker world. The complexity of poker with its various strategies ensure that bots will always be inadequate when compared to human players.  What about two or three bots playing together? Poker bot rings are also popping up across the internet where two or more bots play together again other players at the table.

Huge Bot Advantages

Poker bots can play 24 hours a day 365 days a year. They never get tired mis-click, or waiver from their programmed strategy. Bots are machines that use strict programming language, therefore they won’t go on tilt or backdown to aggression. Humans are oppositely very emotional and can be subject to “tilting” and fearful thoughts. Imagine the amount of rakeback a bot could generate, playing every hour of every day. It would only have to break-even in gameplay to win money via rakeback each month.

Poker Rooms Fight Back

Poker sites unanimously deny the presense of bots at their poker rooms. Nobody wants to admit that bots are abundant in online poker for fear of player loss. Most cardrooms won’t even talk about the potential of poker bots existing, denying interviews and press releases regarding the subject. Obviously, bots exist though since poker rooms explicitly state rules prohibiting the use of bots in their terms of service. Why create a rule against bots if they don’t exist? Rooms also monitor gameplay for unusual poker activity. Two screen names playing together frequently or suspicious hand play are two red flags that identify bots.  Human players are the main watchdog, flagging and reporting potential bots they play against.

One thing is for sure – wherever there is money to be made people with financial motives will be found.  Programmers and other poker players will be ruthlessly programming poker bots for commercial reasons. Just like the super computer chess bot, a poker bot could soon become equally intelligent to the likes of human poker players. If poker super bots aren’t yet playing among us, they can’t be too far off. Poker rooms will have to increase their watchful eye if they intend to keep human players happy – if there are any left.

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Poker Player Earnings History

Have you ever been at a table and heard someone brag about how much they make playing poker? Chances are if you haven’t yet you will very soon. Online poker games are filled with people who boast about winning at poker. Hiding behind the anonymity of the internet and a screen name poker players tend to exaggerate about their win rate and profitability – perhaps even lie all together. Up until a few years ago they could get away with relentless bragging. Many websites now track earnings of players in tournaments and sit n go games. You can go on to these sites free of charge and search any players earnings.

Several search databases exist, but we have combed through the majority of database sites and come up with a few good ones. These poker earnings history databases track profitability in a few types of games like tournaments and sit n’ gos. For cash games you will have to rely on pokertracker and other data mining services. Each of these services tracks and ranks various players across different poker sites. You are usually allowed three basic searches per day free of charge. For additional features and searches you must have a premium membership. For serious poker players who rely on poker for income these databases may be a necessity. Here are a few reasons you may want to utilize poker player earnings history databases.

• Measuring an Opponent’s Skill
• Finding Loose Games
• Disproving Statements Made By Opponents
• Tracking Your Own Performance

Pocket Fives

Pocket Fives is a members only database that ranks various players across all poker sites. The best part about the site is its lack of charge. After signing up for a free membership you can search for other members of the site. The only downside to this feature is your opponents can do the same for you. Pocket Fives is strictly for tournament play rankings and player biography information. The website is well respected among the poker community and even ranks players specifically by world, country, state and city. This site can tell you what players are good in your home town, even if it is small and unknown.

Sharkscope

If you have ever played a sit and go you will want to know what players at your table  are profitable. This will help you attack the weak players and stay away from the strong ones. Sharkscope is a earnings history database designed specifically for sit n go tournaments.  The service is so useful that some major poker rooms have contemplated banning poker players from using it. General visitors get five free searches per day with additional services and information costing a fee. Using the premium service is great for serious sit n go players. You can search for the weakest tables to play at  before buying in to a sit n go. As you already know table selection is important since you want to play against the weakest players possible.

Official Poker Rankings

If you want to know the collective career earnings of any of your opponents Official Poker Rankings is the site to visit. It organizes players by card room and ranks them out of the total player pool. The it provides interesting and useful stats like return on investment (ROI) and in the money (ITM) percentages. If you ever make it deep into a tournament this service can help you figure out what kind of tournament poker player you are up against. This service is provided free for a limited amount of searches. Visitors get three free searches per day before they are prompted to sign up for a premium service.

*Updated: OPR no longer carries Full Tilt Poker statistics.

The Poker DB

The Poker DB is under new ownership by Bluff Magazine. The site offers an unlimited amount of “basic” player searches. For detailed information on players you must subscribe for a premium membership. This provides detailed access to all datapoints. While free searches aren’t nearly as detailed, they are unlimited. Furthermore, ThePokerDB.com covers all poker sites including Full Tilt Poker.

If you haven’t already heard of these services visit the sites right now and look up your own poker earnings. If you are playing in a tournament or sit n go right now check out the other people at your table. Using these services during play is a big advantage. You will instantly know who the good and bad players are without much effort. It may be the difference between a big cash and barely making the money. Perhaps a few free uses will convince you to go premium for a small monthly fee. Whether you use the services for dirt on your opponents or for a competitive advantage, the value is unmistakable – statistics don’t lie.

Use Earnings History to Your Advantage at Full Tilt Poker

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Wealth of Online Poker Rooms

Imagine running a business with huge margins, low labor costs and limited equipment needs. Even better is running that business nearly twenty-four hours a day, three-hundred sixty days per year. From an accounting perspective this seems like a fairy-tale. However, several online poker rooms experience these business characteristics everyday. The online poker industry is a multi-billion dollar industry with the top players taking the biggest piece of the pie. The industry is still growing with emerging countries starting to add to the player base. With recent legislative pressures finally in check, online poker is once again on the rise. If poker rooms can continue to successfully build or even maintain player base during this soft period, they can expect huge profits in the future. Here are some of the methods and ideas poker sites use in marketing campaigns to build their player base and build their brand.

Wealth Projection

Let’s first take a look at growth statistics in the online gaming industry. Online gaming has exploded in the last decade with poker becoming the industry leader. Gaming revenues have now reached in the billions of dollars and are still growing. Some projections call for an increase of twenty percent or more in the next year alone. Christiansen Capital Advisors stated that online poker revenues grew from $82.7 million in 2001 to $2.4 billion in 2005. This demonstrates the explosive growth in the industry. Industry giant, Party Poker announced in 2008 that it had revenues of $473 million and net income of $70 million. Had it not been for recent prohibitive legislature by the United States government, Party Poker would already be generating well over a billion dollars in revenue. Keep a watch on United States legislature regarding online gaming and poker. Should the federal government decide to let poker sites back into the American gaming market, you could see an immediate and dramatic rise in poker revenue.

Player Endorsements

One of the biggest hurdles for startup poker rooms is building a safe and secure image. New players only want to play at safe poker rooms projecting safety and integrity. Professional poker players endorse online poker sites. Full Tilt poker is home to the most professional poker player endorsements. Coincidentally, they are also in the top three poker rooms in terms of traffic. Pro players help project a honest and trustworthy image to potential players. New players conclude that professionals wouldn’t endorse any poker site that was a scam or unfair. While poker rooms like PokerStars, Ultimate Bet and Full Tilt pay large premiums for celebrity and professional endorsements, they reap the benefits many times over. The return on investment for worthy endorsees is phenomenal to say the least. Putting well-known faces with popular poker sites gives that room the much needed “rock solid” image they are after.

Software Enhancements

Ease of use and clarity are two of the main criteria used by beginning poker players when selecting a site to play on. Nobody wants complicated software with long learning curves and errors while playing. Poker rooms that keep their software simple and easy often become more popular than those with complicated study intensive sites. Enhancements like customer loyalty, free rolls, and custom filters also help attract players. Any type of software enhancement that lessons the burden of finding a game to play in improves user experience. Organization and transparency play big parts in separating successful poker sites from failing ones.

Affiliate Network

With online and television advertising becoming expensive for poker sites, managers have turned to affiliate networking to cover their advertising needs. Instead of paying for overpriced television ads, poker rooms have created an incentive based system for anyone who wishes to participate. Refer-a-friend and revenue sharing programs have become very popular with players and bloggers alike. Tracking links and bonus codes identify new poker players to a given affiliate account and credit accordingly. Anyone can become an online poker affiliate, regardless of experience. Websites are not required either since bonus codes can track player referrals. Whether you intend to open up a website or just refer friends by word of mouth, anyone can make money as a poker affiliate. All successful poker rooms have extensive affiliate networks with managers and customer service.

Reliability& Integrity

Game fairness and integrity have everything to do with the success of an online poker room. Even whispers of unfair game play or financial transactions can cause a “hiccup” in poker room traffic. In 2008 Ultimate Bet and Absolute poker had a scandal involving a “super-user” account. The scam was revealed based on examination of hand history on the suspected account. Business at each of these two rooms was decimated, and has still not fully recovered over a year later. Keeping a squeaky clean image is the main goal of every card room. Doing otherwise often results in a room being virtually shut down overnight. Small discrepancies over hands and financial problems are often handled with compensation like extended bonus offers. Having a reliable and honest poker site image is crucial to long term success.

Obstacles Overcome

Many obstacles arise for poker rooms over time. For starters, laws like the Internet Port Act have threatened the very existence of online poker. Although they didn’t directly ban online poker, they put a stop to the methods of funding for poker room accounts. This made it difficult for poker players to both deposit and cash-out winnings. The law was added to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act under the Bush administration. Recent court rulings have been made regarding online poker. Several courts have ruled that poker is in fact a skill game and not a game of chance. While poker players have known this all along, the courts have finally figured it out.

Online poker has been around for a while now with some even saying that the industry is temporarily saturated. Despite the gaming industry experiencing “softness” experts believe it will only grow in the future. With recent court rulings finding in favor of poker as a skill game, this softness could be alleviated in 2010. The poker sites most resilient to industry softness and government actions will be the winners in the long run. A recent downturn in the global economy has also hurt the prospects for online gaming. When the overall world economy begins strengthening online poker could resume growth once again. Untapped countries like China could also enter the market soon as countries may support online gaming to generate tax revenue. Despite the current negativity in the poker market, huge margins and fairly reasonable overhead costs will allow poker sites to be profitable. This period we are currently in is as bad as it gets. Those poker rooms that can made it now will be the winners for years to come. Expect big things for online poker by the end of 2010.

Make Money Playing Poker at Full Tilt Poker

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