Dynamics of Bubble Play in Poker Tournaments

The bubble is one of the most crucial times of a poker tournament. After all, it is the moment of truth where you either get a return on your investment or lose everything. In case you didn’t know, the bubble is the point in time where you near the payout. Although it is technically a name given to the position of one out of the money, the bubble encompasses a much broader area where people begin to change their play in order to make the payout. Being educated on bubble psychology along with stack sizes and player motives can help you master bubble play. As the great investment guru Warren Buffet says, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The same holds true in the poker world as both poker and investing have similarities in psychology. Improving your own bubble play could be the difference between just placing or winning the tournament. A few basic features of the bubble will be addressed in the following paragraphs.

Player Psychology

Poker is an investment game coupled with timing and luck. Consequently, fear and greed play huge roles in the psychology surrounding bubble play – often for good reason. Do you really want to finish one out of the money after playing for hours to get to that point? This is one of the main questions players may ask themselves at that point in the tournament. Much debate has been circled around the bubble and whether or not a player should hold out for a payout or play as usual. This debate may be unique to each individual player based on their skill level and bankroll. However, a mathematical view supports the theory of always playing for the win because of the payout structure. The top nine places win fifty-five percent of the prize pool, while the top three places receive more than a third of the prize pool. Even with these statistics poker players still insist on tightening up at the bubble just to make the payout for a meager .02% of the total prize money.

Types of Bubbles

* Time Bubbles

In a multi-day tournament like the world series of poker a time based bubble exists. In fact t-shirts have been marketed with the saying, “I survived day one at the WSOP.” No difference exists in payment between being the first one knocked out of the tournament and the bubble position. Each finishing position loses their buyin and doesn’t make any money. Fear drives time bubbles, especially at major tournaments like the W.S.O.P. The same holds true for the start of these larger tournaments. Nobody wants to be associated with being the first person knocked out of the tournament. Resultantly, the first few hands of a tournament, day, or final table may be played tight by the majority of players.

* Payout Bubble

The most obvious and well-known of the bubbles is the payout bubble. This is specifically being one position out of the money and can be the tightest play of the entire tournament. Players are waiting to push top tier holdings like AA, KK, QQ and AK. When they aren’t dealt these hands a lack of action ensues. Both large and short stacks can be tight as a drum during the payout bubble. Some situations exist where shortstacks literally blind away just to make the payout, negating any meaningful chance of winning the tournament.

* Final Table Bubble

Yet another type of mini bubble exists in poker tournaments. The final table is a sought after prize among poker players. Not only does the prize money increase, but bragging rights are given to those who final table. Psychologically it sounds better to say that you final tabled a tournament as opposed to finishing tenth. Final tables get all of the spotlight both on television and online. Nobody remembers the name of the guy that finished tenth at the W.S.O.P. – but they may remember the ninth place finisher at the final table. The desire to make a final table at all costs will cause many players to play significantly tighter on this type of bubble.

* Post Bubble

The dynamics of post bubble play change as well. After the payout bubble is over the game goes from extremely tight to extremely loose. Since players are in the money, they are less hesitant to put all of their chips at risk – especially short and micro-stacks. Things can actually get fairly wild right after the payout bubble as well. Players that have been clinging on to life by folding their way to a payout are short-stacked and need to double up to avoid being blinded out. As a result mediocre holdings are often shoved out of desperation.

* Cheating the Bubble

The concept of cheating the bubble is somewhat controversial in online play. Poker sites use “hand for hand” play on the bubble to overcome stall cheating. This is a technique where the player times out his turn in hopes that an opponent will get knocked out of the tournament in the allotted time bank. With the addition of an extended time bank players can take stall cheating a step further, wasting additional time hopes of someone else getting out first.

Mastering bubble play can take a lifetime to master. Be aggressive when others are playing tight on the bubble and play tight immediately after the bubble. Attack stacks of equal size or smaller, while avoiding confrontation with big stacks. Nobody wants to be the person that played for hours, yet finished one out of the money. Take advantage of the bubble by picking up blinds and stealing from players who fear the bubble. After the bubble sit back and play top holdings to pick off short stacks shoving any two cards. If you happen to be a short stack yourself, determine your motives and objectives in the tournament. Are you simply trying to cash or are you trying to win it all? Go into the bubble with a plan by taking note of the size of your stack in relation to others. Finally, try to determine what other players will do as bubble play begins. Figure out their motives and goals. Most importantly, don’t fear the bubble!

Master the Bubble and Win Tournaments at Full Tilt Poker

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