Set Mining Using Implied Odds

The power of implied odds makes a variety of pre-flop holdings worth playing. This is especially the case with small pocket pairs. One strategy employed by many poker players involves playing ace-king and pocket pairs only. The art of set mining is profitable over the long term provided the miner has lay-down discipline and opponents play very aggressive. As the name implies, players mine flops with pocket pairs hoping to make a set. Once accomplished miners aim to win a sizable pot against other player’s premium holdings. Against loose aggressive opponents, set mining can be highly effective and profitable. A few key aspects of set mining should be understood before you attempt a set mining poker session.

Implied Odds

First off it is important to understand why set mining is profitable. The topic of implied odds is the main reason why set mining works. Overly aggressive opponents will make playing mediocre holdings impossible since they will bet and raise you out of most pots. Setting the flop can help put the hammer on loose aggressive opponents. It can also give you the respect you need at the table when attempting to make a bluff. The basic concept behind mining is investing a little into a pot in return for a chance to win a huge pot.

The Mathematics Behind Set Mining

.50/1.00 NLHE $100 Buyin Table (100 BBs)

Player 1 Holding – AdAs

Raises to $4.00 (4 BBs)

Remaining $96.00

Player 2 Holding – 3c3h

Calls for $4.00 (4 BB)

Remaining $96.00

Flop (9s – Kd – 3d)

The odds of this situation occurring is 1 in 8.51 or 11.76%. Obviously, a set given the flop above would likely result in player 2 winning a sizable pot. Just how much would player 2 need to win to make set mining profitable over the long term? Assuming player 2 never called more than five dollars ($5.00) preflop when attempting to mine a set, the following calculations would apply. For simplicity sake we will round set odds up to 1 in 9 to account for rake taken in each pot. Since sets are usually followed by huge pots we can assume max rake will be taken every 1 in 9 successful set mines.

Attempt 1 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 2 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 3 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 4 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 5 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 6 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 7 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 8 -$5.00 (FAIL)

Attempt 9 -$5.00 (SUCCESS)

TOTAL -$45.00 (9 Attempts x $5.00)

After 9 set mining attempts a given player will be in debt -$45.00. Therefore on the 1 in 9 successful set mining attempts that player must make at least $45.01 off opponents to become profitable. (after rake taken)

Remaining Disciplined

Set mining can be systematic and robotic in almost all cases. Usually players play several tables at the same time when set mining. Since play is restricted to Ace-King and all pairs, lots of folding should occur. The one-two punch of making an easy lay-down or winning huge pots make set mining simple. As shown on the mathematic calculations above it is crucial to see flops as cheaply as possible. Ill-advised play making or post flop non set draws can weaken your strategy.

Effective Stack Sizes

In reference to the example provided above certain stack sizing figures should be applicable. Since we needed to win at least $45.01 after rake off our opponents, we need to make sure they actually have that amount to lose. More importantly, you should make sure that you also have at least $45.01 to bet into your opponent. Both you and your opponent need at least $45.01 in front of you to make the play work. The simple fact that you cannot win more off your opponent than is in front of you is known as “effective stack size”. Going one step further we can look at “stack odds” – or the odds that upon hitting your set you can take your opponents stack (double up).

* Never call more than 10% of your stack to a reraise to set mine

* Never call more than 5% of your stack to a single open raise to set mine

Measuring Your Opponent

Taking account of your opponents playing habits is crucial in set mining. Since we need to win at least 9 times our average pre-flop call to become profitable at set mining, we must make sure our opponents are capable of foolishly overplaying their hands. Tight opponents and passive opponents are not targets for set mining since they are not likely to lose enough money. Talented players and good card readers also fall into the same type of non-action category since they will likely sniff out big hands by their opponents. Overly aggressive and impulsive players should be targeted in set mining. Early position raisers also fall into this category since they are likely to hold premium overpairs preflop. The more likely your opponent is to make a big lay-down or sniff out your set, the worse your implied odds become. The effective stack size of 9 times the current bet is no longer good enough. It is now more likely 12-15x the current bet, making set mining nonprofitable. (12 x $5.00 = $120.00) = -$20.00 (Stack $100.00 – Cost $120.00)

Oversets

Although very unlikely, oversets will occur over time due to the laws of probability. The lower your pocket pair is, the more likely over-setting will occur over time. Set over set will take place just 1 in 98 attempts. At first glance this may seem like a terrible deal – getting your stack swiped by an overset. However, the laws of probability also help us decipher that set over set is an equilibrium occurrence. This means you will overset your opponents just as much as they overset you resulting in only the loss in rake.

Table Image

The downside to set mining is a compromised table image. If opponents catch on to your set mining activity they will quickly label you as a rock tight player and you won’t get much action. Try to show off weak holdings to your opponents on occasion to keep them confused. A loose table image is needed to get action after hitting a set. Raising all in against micro-stacked opponents with weak holdings is one way to build a loose image. Shoving live cards like suited connectors against a microstack with Ace-King is a great way to do this. You are only a 62% – 38% dog pre-flop, plus you gain added value in the loosening of your table image. Obviously, simple bluff showing will get the job done as well.

Set mining is one of the few proven profitable robotic strategies at the poker table. With discipline, table knowledge and mathematics any player can grind out profitability in cash games. With proper table selection and opponent notes players can do even better than grinding. Staying disciplined and systematic in your approach to set mining is key over the long term. Multiple tables help with set mining by keeping players disciplined since they have to make actions quickly and fold all hands but ace-king and pocket pairs. This also helps improve variance swings and gives a player rakeback with the volume of hands played. Next time you find yourself at a maniac or bet happy table use the golden strategy of set mining.

Set Mining Works Best at Full Tilt Poker

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